Is It Gold’s Time to Shine?

Sometimes gold and the SPX are positively correlated, sometimes their cycles invert.

We have examined the parallels between the SPX primary high in Q1 2000 and the secondary high in Q3 2000 and the peak in Q1 2018 and the recent peak in the SPX.

So, the question is if the SPX rolls over, is gold set to advance?

A weekly GLD below shows the powerful advance anticipated in this space that played out from the late December 2015 low.

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Note how a Live Angle defines the mid-August low.

This week is the 7th week since that low and consequently may be a turning point.

Checking a daily HUI, the gold bug index, shows a possible inverse Head & Shoulders.

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Trade above 165 clears the prior shelf from this spring which puts HUI in a position to challenge a declining trendline for 2018 near 170-175.

The 3 Week Chart turned up last week so the ensuing behavior this week and next will important to gauge. A continued rally phase following this turn up of the 3 Week Chart is bullish behavior.

Pulling the lens back to look at a weekly HUI from 2017 shows the significance of the 170 level.

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Interestingly, 360 degrees up from the recent 131 low is 180.

So you can see that an explosive advance could be on the table IF a breakout over 170 plays out, followed by continuation over 180.

Of course 170 is some distance away at the moment, but the cycles suggest that things could happen fast if they get in gear.

As an example, a weekly HUI from 2015 shows the massive rally that occurred after a Bear Trap was sprung in January 2016.

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It may be that a much larger Bear Trap is being set… a MONTHLY Bear Trap with a much larger shelf defined by point A.

This ties to the aforesaid 170 level.

Note the 2 year declining trendline that coincides with the 170 level.

Conclusion. The tip off for an attack of this key 170 level will depend upon whether HUI triggers the inverse Head & Shoulders bottom and gains traction from there.

The purpose of anticipating the potential for gold and silver miners from this juncture is because whether or not the final low is intact, long-term cycles suggest the next important peak is not until late 2020.