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T3’s Market Wrap: Gold Gets Its Shiny Revenge…


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Gold was a real mess yesterday.

Today was another story altogether…

Gold got an initial boost from weak economic data.

Durable Goods Orders fell -1.7% in July, which was worse than the -0.5% decline expected.

Excluding transportation, orders rose 0.2%, missing the 0.5% consensus.

This is the second straight day of weak economic data, and it helped gold extend its early gains.

The dollar fell and gold extended its earlier gains after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell spoke at Jackson Hole, coming off as somewhat dovish.

This put the Vaneck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) at the top of my ETF leaderboard.

And overall, stocks were in good shape overall.

The S&P 500 made a new record high at 2876.16. Tech stocks, particularly semiconductors, were strong, with Nvidia (NVDA) hitting a new record high over $272.

This morning, Bloomberg News reported that the US and China failed to make progress in two days of trade talks, citing a person familiar with the discussions.  Markets didn't seem to care much.

In earnings news, VMWare (VMW) fell despite reporting better-than-expected earnings.

Shoe retailer Foot Locker (FL) fell after missing same-store-sales forecasts. However, the company did beat analysts' earnings and revenue expectations.

The American Association of Individual Investors Sentiment Survey shows that 38.5% of surveyed investors are bullish.

This is up modestly from last week, and exactly in-line with the long-term average.

Interestingly, AAII pointed out it has been a year since bearish sentiment has been above its historical average for a 3-week span. That speaks to the stubborness of the bulls.

The market had ugly drops in February and March, but it recovered quickly both times.

Meanwhile, the CNN Fear & Greed Index is at 59. Fear & Greed operates on a 0-100 scale, and a reading of 59 is slightly greedy, or modestly bullish — nothing to really get excited about.

On balance, I'd say it's encouraging that sentiment isn't overly bullish with the SPX around all-time highs. It means there is still some fear out there.

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