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All posts by Michael Comeau

Do You Feel the Heat Around the Corner?

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“Don’t let yourself get attached to anything you are not willing to walk out on in 30 seconds flat if you feel the heat around the corner.” -Neil McCauley, as portrayed by Robert Deniro in Heat 1) The Heat June and July were incredibly boring… but August is turning out to be another story altogether. It […]

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Did Mr. Market Just Throw Another Sentiment Boomerang?

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Last Friday, sentiment got pretty awful in the wake of North Korea’s threats of an attack on Guam. And then early this week, it went full-on psycho bullish after North Korea blinked and backed off. That was good for me since I’m speculating on a big decline in the VIX… and then it wasn’t so […]

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T3’s Market Wrap: The Ghost of Inflation Past

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1) The Fed Today, the Fed acknowledged what the data has been telling us for months: inflation is hard to find. A week ago, JP Morgan said that “so far this year, US core inflation has printed weaker than expected for four consecutive months, which is a streak only witnessed four other times in the […]

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T3’s Market Wrap: North Korea Blinks

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1) North Korea Blinks North Korea issued a statement that it would observe “the foolish and stupid conduct” of the US before considering an attack on Guam — effectively blinking and backing down from their prior threats. Over the weekend, CIA Director Mike Pompeo said a conflict was not imminent, and this is just another sign that […]

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T3’s Market Wrap: Market Rallies on Lack of Nuclear War

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1) Forget Them Nukes Last week, the fear meter was ratcheted up as traders became concerned about a nuclear showdown with North Korea. We have to remember that nuclear fears were rampant during the Cold War, and that dictators like to stay in charge. I suspect the Kim family has no interest in a conflict […]

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T3’s Take 3: Bulls Fight the Nuclear Summer

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1) Still Tense The North Korea scare dominated the headlines again today following yesterday’s big scare. This morning, the plot thickened after China said it won’t help North Korea if it launches missiles at the US. However, China also said it would not stand for US attacks. To me, that sounds like a reasonable medium for […]

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Why the Big VIX Move May End Soon

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Fear is here, courtesy of North Korea. Just a couple weeks after the VIX hit an all-time low, volatility is exploding as traders start to price in a potential conflict with North Korea. This morning, the plot thickened after China said it won’t help North Korea if it launches missles at the US. However, it would not […]

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T3’s Take 3: Nuclear Summer

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1) Fear Returns Traders were on edge again today on fears of a conflict with North Korea. Japan and South Korea warned that they would not tolerate aggressions from North Korea, including a missile launch at Guam. News reports indicate that Japan moved a PAC-3 Patriot missile system to Tokyo to shoot down North Korean missiles. […]

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T3’s Take 3: Fire, Fury, and the Razor’s Edge

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1) Jobs for Everyone Today, the SPX and Dow Jones Industrial Average made record highs early this afternoon on a strong economic data point. The Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) indicated US job openings rose 461,000 to 6.2 million in June. This was the largest increase since June 2015, bringing the […]

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T3’s Take 3: Strong Earnings, Strong Market

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1) It’s Hard to Argue with the Numbers According to FactSet, 84% of the S&P 500 have delivered financial results, which means second-quarter earnings season is basically in the bag. Now, we tend to focus on big headline drivers like Apple (AAPL), Tesla (TSLA), and Facebook (FB), but let’s drill down on FactSet’s data to see if earnings justify equities at record highs. 72% […]

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