In this morning’s report, I couldn’t help but wonder whether investors/traders are giving short shrift to the idea of a big market event in the event of a Le Pen victory in France.
After all, selling volatility and not buying insurance seems the smart move a la Brexit and the US election. Right?
Maybe the very buying of insurance for those ‘non-events’ was one of the reflexive factors that perpetuated the rally phases following Brexit and the Trump Victory.
Just because the house doesn’t burn down, you don’t cancel the fire insurance do you?
I can’t help but wonder whether ‘wise guys’ are selling volatility here and that the 3rd time may be a charm for bears.
History doesn’t always repeat of course, but we can learn a lot from it.
This Morning’s Daily Market Report showed a daily DJIA chart.
It looks like a fractal of the 1929 pattern, when there was a multi-month flat followed by blow-off and a rollover after a momentous 8 year advance.
When the prior flat snapped, the market plunged.
Maybe nothing, maybe something, but 1929 was 88 years ago.
On my Square of 9 Wheel, 88 points to/aligns with March 1.
In other words, 88 is straight across and opposite March 1.
Of course March 1 is 180 degrees straight across and opposite September 3, the high day in 1929.
What are the odds?