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Redler All-Access gives you a complete trading plan from T3 Live Chief Strategic Officer Scott Redler, whose technical analysis expertise is frequently sought by CNBC, Fox Business, Bloomberg and more.
Below, you’ll read a complete edition of the Redler All-Access Morning Note, which gives thousands of traders from across the globe their daily game plan.
You’ll also view Scott’s extended Morning Call video. Today’s 23-minute edition, spanning 23 minutes, includes actionable analysis of 20+ charts including SPX, SPY, FAS, GS, JPM, FB, AAPL, NVDA, and NTES.
But first, please click the video screen to get a quick introduction to Scott’s approach to the market:
March 20, 2017
Morning Call Video (click the screen to watch)
Please Note: this video is NOT the same as the free Morning Call Express video Scott publishes daily.
The Morning Call Express is a brief 5-7 minute look at the action. The Morning Call included with Redler All-Access is over 20 minutes long, with much more extensive analysis of stocks and ETF’s primed to move.
By Scott Redler
We have mixed markets to start the week with a bit of a cautious tone.
In Europe, the DAX and CAC are -0.3% with the FTSE -0.2%.
In Asia, the Nikkei is on holiday. The Shanghai is +0.4% and the Hang Seng is +0.8%.
The G20 meeting had a protectionist tone.
Last week was an interesting one as the Fed raised rates. There was a bit of a debate on whether Fed Chair Janet Yellen was dovish or hawish.
The markets tried to resume the rally but didn’t have much power.
SPX ignited above the 2373 area to make a lower high and it’s right back there. If we get a hard break below that pivot, the bears could point to a double top with a “train tracks”-type breakout failure. But we’ll see what happens.
On Friday, I was away at a wedding and all my tight upper-level stops got hit. So I will see if we get better entries, or if things turn to more of a waiting game. Let’s stay light on our toes.
Tech still holds up best. Small caps are trying to hold the 50 day. Energy is already back below the 200 day. The banks and bios did show a little relative weakness late last week.
The biggest event this week is Thursday’s House floor vote on Ryan’s healthcare bill.
If this doesn’t pass, questions will be raised about GOP tax reforms. Things could be quiet until then.
SPY went ex-dividend so pricing is a bit odd. We’ll use SPX for better levels. Friday’s SPY low is $237.03. 2377 is the SPX low. If that doesn’t get reclaimed, 2370-2373 (the 8 & 21 day) is the next important intermediate support spot.
Small caps held up a bit better late last week. We’ll see if that continues. IWM’s 50 day support is $136.60. Use that if you’re trying to be long. If it breaks it, be careful because it could be time to flip short. Friday’s low is $137.31.
Bios lost some momentum as AMGN got hit very hard on bad news. IBB needs to prove it can hold above $293.57. Like a lot of traders, I got stopped out last Thursday. It’s now below the 8/21day. If this breaks and closes below Friday’s lows, it could fade back into the base with the 50 day down near $286.
Banks didn’t rally on Wednesday when markets reacted positively to the Fed. Then on Friday, many names dragged the indices lower. I would love to see these names touch the 50 day for test longs after getting stopped out last week.
FAS has the 50 day at $49.90. Friday’s low is $47.18.
JPM has the 50day at $88.29, Friday’s low is $90.65.
GS has the 50 day at $243. Friday’s low is $243.86.
BAC has the 50 day at $23.84. Friday’s low is $24.83.
We’ll see if they hit these levels and stay below, or reclaim Friday’s lows.
JPM is a good indicator to watch.
GS had a ugly candle Friday.
Tech still acts best. QQQ is still above the 8 day. We need to see if that continues. The 8 day is $131.62. The 21 day is $130.80. If tech starts to weaken, perhaps markets weaken a bit. If these upper moving averages hold, it will be hard for the bears to growl too loudly.
NFLX finally woke up again. It cleared $142 and hit a high of $146.50. Now it needs to hold $143.40 to build again for another potential new high.
AMZN is very tight and out of play but it’s holding right under breakout levels. Some are long vs. $247. It would need a high-volume breakout above $857, then $860 to wake up.
GOOGL made new all-time highs last week. It’s been grinding along the 8 day without much power. Now see if it holds $864 to clear $874.42 again.
FB broke above our $140 target. It’s been riding the 8 day higher since January when it reclaimed all moving averages. Now the 8 day is $139.14 with the all-time high at $140.34.
TSLA was a nice new trade for us from last week. It ignited above the $248 lower pivot area and hit $265.75 Thursday. Now see if it holds $259ish to form a new flag for more upside. I Tweeted to Redler All-Access that I turned some of the calls into a spread.
Some Chinese names act well:
BABA has been very choppy but hit a high of $106.50 Friday before pulling in a bit. Now, if it holds the $104 area, it can stay in the game to grind towards $110+. Some are long vs. the earnings gap.
NTES has been consolidating its post-earnings move and came back to test the gap. We can be long vs. $278. See if it clears and holds $292 to get back towards all-time highs.
MOMO cleared its base on big earnings. It held above $30 and is back towards the highs. Now see if it holds $34.01 to keep upper momentum.
AAPL has been rising above the 8 day all of 2017. It had an ugly candle Friday but Barron’s put a positive spin on it this weekend. We’ll see if it reacts around $138.89. Holding that keeps this riding high.
CSCO sits near the highs. Perhaps hold vs. $33.80 or look for a new high trade above $34.53.
ORCL had a big gap up on earnings. Now see if it holds the $45.11 pivot to hold against.
NVDA was a nice focus for us last week. Some of us bought as it cleared $100.50 and it hit a high of $106.12. It’s opening above the 50 day at $106.25. See if it holds above that.
X has been very hit or miss. It was a decent buy on the 3/14 Red Dog Reversal, but taking trades is best here. Now see if it holds the $36 area.
WYNN finally rewarded traders that bought vs. $101 or when it cleared $105.83. It hit $110.31. My report has a $120 target but I’d still take trades along the way.
ACIA is broken but it woke up a bit. Maybe if it can clear $55.47, it can continue to the $58 area. But be careful with it.
TWLO is not doing much. Some are in vs. $30. Be careful with this one too.
MSCI has an M&A story going around, so I bought some calls a month out. The options risk is premium paid.
AMD was upgraded by Jeffries. I guess it has some room towards $14.70.
SNAP came off my radar after it re-tested the $24 area andit got rejected. Now you have a new point of reference at $18.90 to trade against if you’re interested.
OLED has a nice chart. If it can clear $86.51, it could reach $88.50 for new highs.
CELG had a nice little RDR on Friday around the $127.44 pivot. I have 20% of my calls left. I might just exit as the clock is ticking and I want to lock in the gains.
Metals and miners had a big engulfing day last Wednesday. If you’re interested, see if there is commitment:
GLD needs to hold $116.69 to keep some attention. $117.29 is pivot resistance.
GDX needs to hold $22.51 to stay in focus.
TLT does not have much going on here. It held last Wednesday’s lows. Longs can use $117.43 as your pivot. $119.41 is the 50 day. If it gets there, it could be a better sale than buy.
Today’s Trading Focus
We could have a quiet day since the 3/23 healthcare vote seems is now being billed as the event of the week
I’d like to buy the banks lower.
There are a few divergences worth noting, but nothing blaringly wrong. Less activity is more for now as we see if upper support holds. I bought back a little AAPL. I want to see if AMZN wakes up at some point, but I’m not sure what the catalyst would be.
BABA could also be a buy on the dip. I will let TSLA set up again. GS is near the 50 day and could be a scalp long the first time it holds it.
Positions Disclosure: Scott J. Redler is long AAPL, BABA, TSLA calls, TSLA call spreads, CELG calls, MSCI calls, TWTR calls, GWPH calls, INSY calls
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Today’s Trading Calendar
Global Economic Calendar
3:00am EUR German PPI m/m: Prior 0.70%
Tentative EUR German Buba Monthly Report
8:30am CAD Wholesale Sales m/m: Prior 0.70%
10:30am AUD CB Leading Index m/m Prior: -0.10%
12:45pm EUR German Buba President Weidmann Speaks
1:10pm USD FOMC Member Evans Speaks
5:45pm NZD Visitor Arrivals m/m Prior 1.90%
7:30pm USD President Trump Speaks
8:30pm AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
8:30pm AUD HPI q/q: Prior 1.50%
10:00pm NZD Credit Card Spending y/y: Prior 7.10%
Movado Group (MOV)
NQ Mobile (NQ)
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